{
  "test": "AH-3",
  "ticket": "SAIL-149",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T14:14:59.315787+00:00",
  "status": "blocked_frontier_quota",
  "productQuestion": "Told the rules and tested fair, can a frontier AI match our trained model as the scanner?",
  "verdict": {
    "answer": null,
    "bottomLine": "Not answered: Fable 5 quota blocked the fair rematch. v26 96.1% found / 0.225 false lines per photo; deep20 95.3% / 0.400. Frontier: unmeasured.",
    "criterion": "On the entire fixed sample: frontier stripesFoundRate >= both incumbents AND falsePerPhoto <= both incumbents. Descriptive sample comparison, not population noninferiority.",
    "whatItMeans": "The incumbent baselines are measured. There is no new evidence for or against replacing the scanner until Fable 5 completes this same set."
  },
  "holdout": {
    "idFile": "server/inference/test-holdout-ids-canonical.json",
    "freezeDate": "2026-08-25",
    "canonicalCount": 332,
    "sha256": "a49d9139d6eac54951c4c3e257770855192a75f8c941799ef4141c49a4c11243",
    "trainingPerformed": false,
    "policy": "Frozen holdout is measurement only; never train on these photos.",
    "coldForIncumbents": "By the canonical exclusion contract and user-specified construction. Original training manifests were not independently re-audited in this task."
  },
  "sample": {
    "idFile": "server/inference/experiments/frontier-rematch-ah3/sample.json",
    "count": 40,
    "humanStripes": 127,
    "ids": [
      "f8a02b2a-6548-474d-9515-e64a66f9dc1d",
      "6a3959a31e0d3d21a914cdb1",
      "5e2a465c-9aaf-4d04-9ef0-2c830450d263",
      "69cfbfe32b1792f6c6e98621",
      "aca6ec8c-447a-4547-b138-073278021c9e",
      "d0ee29d7-6549-476b-a7e1-865bb284b9b5",
      "6a3a910b1f2499a7cd5f8abc",
      "6a2839a8814eb7b517af9a21",
      "69ca5dde716e6cc995056b62",
      "6903861dad76bbe1dff9bb7d",
      "691cde20392664455e0f556b",
      "87014297-3f1f-42a9-bf6e-0169c71cea19",
      "2e6c5276-49af-41c4-a346-b65bc4502b85",
      "69d6758957225f76ad388b5c",
      "6a0ecec23b400ea38567eed9",
      "6a0200d4360b9cbb803c7454",
      "a633a49b-144d-4bda-bf46-ace03a838b73",
      "69c54916e20e71ab45e706cc",
      "69f7ac92ea23d5ac8b291702",
      "691bd503f162dc79d0f70ec7",
      "ae91de04-53a0-4e0c-8dc1-645c0240b3f2",
      "fd203e72-4c9f-417d-8920-33247905e968",
      "69c0427cbd59eca577b5f40d",
      "69de3b5a2804888f35c96593",
      "d8807b94-6b3d-45a8-8e58-6e6233506880",
      "69e22c1513569618c9ace5ce",
      "2fa51ba9-e843-4ffb-ba6a-02fca2002a95",
      "6a04bedf065edc0805862212",
      "7f3e673a-976c-4e5a-90e9-ff3bcc23dbc9",
      "691393b3175e29f8940b55d7",
      "69e00352a80c624be715e7d1",
      "e27c97c2-2dfd-4ef3-be71-3be10a9a19ec",
      "6a215f5d1c6c18f03a87191c",
      "6a0c393a482a96f4c6a5353c",
      "c388b7a0-b4df-407a-95d9-541041a22dc4",
      "69f8c879ea23d5ac8b291712",
      "690a914c9631228afbebbb5d",
      "69e6c64b5e24eefa6fe383d3",
      "692ee2dd1b550c3bcb690cfd",
      "69a20e5040043e516bbf86eb"
    ],
    "seed": "SAIL-149/AH-3/v1:",
    "selection": "lowest 40 SHA256(seed + photoId), no outcome filtering",
    "selectionBeforeScoring": true,
    "missingImages": 0,
    "missingLabels": 0,
    "frameMismatches": 0,
    "exifTransposed": true,
    "frontierLabelsVisible": false
  },
  "method": {
    "tracer": "claude-fable-5",
    "loop": "initial trace -> render -> check/refine -> render -> check/refine (two refinements)",
    "promptFile": "server/inference/experiments/frontier-rematch-ah3/prompt.txt",
    "promptSha256": "e3925843231ebe90f2dd9ddf8a77286a5bb5172bdfb209dae4a95bde90f3a0fc",
    "neverBreakRules": "verbatim CLAUDE.md block",
    "commitForcing": true,
    "scoring": "Exact AH-2 FINAL scorer: 60-point pixel arclength densification; each human independently matched to nearest candidate by human->line mean chamfer within 3% diagonal; false iff nearest line->human mean chamfer exceeds 3%; coverage and overhang medians pooled over matched humans.",
    "matchingCaveat": "Not one-to-one: one candidate may cover multiple human stripes. Exact AH-2 behavior is retained. Near-human duplicate predictions need not count as false.",
    "geometryFilters": "No extra post-filtering, matching AH-2. Never-break rules are in the tracer prompt; this does not establish that every emitted line obeys every rule.",
    "comparatorSource": "Cached /predict-coords v26/deep20 responses from runs/hybrid-sam3-v26-deep20-20260902, rescored on the fixed sample; no GPU invocation needed.",
    "cacheProvenance": "Per-photo source paths, modelVersion checks, image/label/prediction SHA256 hashes in sample.json.",
    "tracerImplementationStatus": "Prepared but not end-to-end validated because Fable 5 quota is exhausted. Host renders the overlays, Claude Code Read supplies vision; no substitute model.",
    "ah2CompatibilityVerified": true,
    "ah2CsvRowsMatched": 111
  },
  "execution": {
    "frontierPhotosAttempted": 0,
    "frontierPhotosCompleted": 0,
    "availabilityProbe": {
      "modelRequested": "claude-fable-5",
      "transport": "Claude Code CLI using the existing authenticated account",
      "prompt": "Reply with exactly AH3_READY. Do not use tools.",
      "photosSent": 0,
      "exitCode": 1,
      "isError": true,
      "apiErrorStatus": 429,
      "result": "You've reached your Fable 5 limit. Run /usage-credits to continue or switch models with /model.",
      "durationMs": 782,
      "totalCostUsd": 0,
      "sessionId": "f695f7e7-1083-4ea7-a2be-9adda7706042",
      "substituteModelUsed": false
    },
    "gpuNeeded": false,
    "missingPredictionsScoredAsZero": false,
    "partialFrontierResultsUsedForHeadline": false,
    "deploymentPerformed": false,
    "commitPerformed": false
  },
  "perSource": {
    "frontier": {
      "photosScored": 0,
      "completedTraces": 0,
      "stripesFoundRate": null,
      "falsePerPhoto": null,
      "coverageMedPct": null,
      "overhangMedPct": null,
      "cleanPhotos": null
    },
    "v26": {
      "photosScored": 40,
      "humanStripes": 127,
      "found": 122,
      "falseTotal": 9,
      "stripesFoundRate": 0.9606299212598425,
      "falsePerPhoto": 0.225,
      "coverageMedPct": 0.18500282054633438,
      "overhangMedPct": 0.1815925141579792,
      "cleanPhotos": 35,
      "undercountedPhotos": 0,
      "reusedCandidateMatches": 0,
      "skippedDegenerate": 0
    },
    "deep20": {
      "photosScored": 40,
      "humanStripes": 127,
      "found": 121,
      "falseTotal": 16,
      "stripesFoundRate": 0.952755905511811,
      "falsePerPhoto": 0.4,
      "coverageMedPct": 0.20948708948111033,
      "overhangMedPct": 0.2082709420544866,
      "cleanPhotos": 30,
      "undercountedPhotos": 0,
      "reusedCandidateMatches": 0,
      "skippedDegenerate": 0
    }
  },
  "perPhoto": {
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  },
  "historicalAH2": {
    "source": "server/inference/runs/frontier-bench-2026-09-05/summary.json",
    "idFile": "server/inference/runs/frontier-bench-2026-09-05/frontier-bench-photos.json",
    "scoredIdSource": "server/inference/runs/frontier-bench-2026-09-05/traces.json",
    "freezeDate": null,
    "date": "2026-09-06",
    "plannedPhotos": 40,
    "scoredPhotos": 37,
    "notAFairComparison": true,
    "reason": "Incumbents trained on these photos; frontier saw them cold.",
    "frontierUndercountedPhotos": 12,
    "perSource": {
      "frontier": {
        "stripesFoundRate": 0.854,
        "falsePerPhoto": 0.486,
        "coverageMedPct": 0.226,
        "overhangMedPct": 0.247,
        "cleanPhotos": "21/37"
      },
      "v26": {
        "stripesFoundRate": 0.967,
        "falsePerPhoto": 0.297,
        "coverageMedPct": 0.159,
        "overhangMedPct": 0.157,
        "cleanPhotos": "29/37"
      },
      "deep20": {
        "stripesFoundRate": 0.959,
        "falsePerPhoto": 0.405,
        "coverageMedPct": 0.21,
        "overhangMedPct": 0.21,
        "cleanPhotos": "31/37"
      }
    },
    "reproduction": {
      "frontier": {
        "recomputed": {
          "photosScored": 37,
          "humanStripes": 123,
          "found": 105,
          "falseTotal": 18,
          "stripesFoundRate": 0.8536585365853658,
          "falsePerPhoto": 0.4864864864864865,
          "coverageMedPct": 0.22629807594200946,
          "overhangMedPct": 0.2467512331675322,
          "cleanPhotos": 21,
          "undercountedPhotos": 12,
          "reusedCandidateMatches": 8,
          "skippedDegenerate": 0
        },
        "csvDifferences": []
      },
      "v26": {
        "recomputed": {
          "photosScored": 37,
          "humanStripes": 123,
          "found": 119,
          "falseTotal": 11,
          "stripesFoundRate": 0.967479674796748,
          "falsePerPhoto": 0.2972972972972973,
          "coverageMedPct": 0.1585582952895137,
          "overhangMedPct": 0.15658701408132453,
          "cleanPhotos": 29,
          "undercountedPhotos": 3,
          "reusedCandidateMatches": 3,
          "skippedDegenerate": 0
        },
        "csvDifferences": []
      },
      "deep20": {
        "recomputed": {
          "photosScored": 37,
          "humanStripes": 123,
          "found": 118,
          "falseTotal": 15,
          "stripesFoundRate": 0.959349593495935,
          "falsePerPhoto": 0.40540540540540543,
          "coverageMedPct": 0.2096288374474497,
          "overhangMedPct": 0.20964065202387733,
          "cleanPhotos": 31,
          "undercountedPhotos": 1,
          "reusedCandidateMatches": 2,
          "skippedDegenerate": 0
        },
        "csvDifferences": []
      }
    },
    "comparisonCaution": "AH-2 versus AH-3 changes both photos and frontier prompt. Differences do not isolate a prompt effect."
  },
  "resume": {
    "cwd": "/Volumes/MacMiniExtra/Projects/boats",
    "commands": [
      "python3 server/inference/experiments/frontier-rematch-ah3/trace.py",
      "python3 server/inference/experiments/frontier-rematch-ah3/report.py"
    ],
    "requirements": [
      "Fable 5 quota restored under the existing Claude account; no model substitution.",
      "Keep sample.json and prompt.txt fixed. Complete all 40, including difficult photos.",
      "Retain API failures as unavailable; completed empty traces count as model misses."
    ]
  }
}